The overriding theme to this year’s draft class is that it is loaded with frontline players. When players like Patterson, Sanders and Monroe agreed to return for another year they filled out an already promising class of one and done freshman (Cousins, Favors, Whiteside, Orton) and developing older players that might otherwise find themselves in the top 20.
Naturally there’s not enough room for all of them, yet that doesn’t diminish their potential to impact an NBA team.
It’s the kind of perfect storm that we had last year for point guards, and that resulted in players like Holiday, Collison, Lawson, Maynor, Price and Mills all falling deep into the draft. So who might be the Collison or Price of this year’s bigs? I’ve put together an incomplete list of some of the options that could fall into the 20’s or deeper.
Larry Sanders was overshadowed by Eric Maynor at VCU last year, but even then when I tuned in to scout Maynor it was Sanders who impressed me the most, enough that I grabbed some clips on him. He’s a big, strong, physical PF that is very good at facing up and going off his dribble. He’s smart and disciplined in his play, a player that will fill his lane or find someone to put a body on when the shot goes up. He also has a nice wingspan.
What holds him back is a lack of quality post moves, unimpressive hops and an overall offense that’s marginal. Too much of his game is below the rim at either end which is troubling. He doesn’t really show the kind of rebounding technique that Blair did, so it’s not as though he’s learned to compensate for his close to the floor game. If anything his combo of good face up drives and lack of back to the rim and above the rim game place him into the SF range in the NBA.
Sanders is a late teens pick, maybe early 20s and to me this is a fair price. He’s a gamer and something of a winner, but with a limited upside. I want to love him, but I can only like him.
Gani Lawal is another kid I can only like even though I love some aspects of his game. Like Sanders, he’s not really an above the rim player. Lawal is a bit short and as an older player that’s not going to change.
What Lawal brings to the game is the single best set of back to the rim post moves in his class and an incredible motor. Opponents often commented on his endless drive and conditioning and it shows in games as he works baseline to baseline and is the first guy to either end while doing so. This means he’s at one end getting a defensive rebound and then beats everyone to the other end and gets blocked up in the low post ready to receive the entry pass while the ball is just getting to half court.
Lawal is also a strong fundamentals style rebounder and defender who carves out space in the low block at either end, resets his own position on offense quickly and denies position strongly at the defensive end. If Lawal was carrying the size of his teammate Favors, he’d be looking at a top 2 draft slot easily.
But the fact is that Lawal just isn’t that size and it’s going to hurt him. He seems likely to struggle to get some shots off in the NBA, even though his post work should still get him looks. And while he’ll make it tough to get a post game going against him, he won’t be turning away dribble penetration with intimidating swats at the rim. He’s a classic great NCAA player that looks borderline for the NBA.
Like Hibbert, the key for Lawal will be developing an NBA niche that centers on his strengths and stays away from his weaknesses. Moute, Gibson and Blair are making it work, so it’s possible, and Lawal is likely to get drafted in a similar early 2nd round location that carries lowered expectations.
Jerome Jordan is a kid I caught while getting some hard to find Whiteside footage. The Tulsa-Marshall game was a key conference battle and the focus was clearly on Whiteside vs Tulsa’s seven foot star Jordan. At the time he was off the high draft radar, but he was so good in this game that I had to put together a package of his plays. Since then he’s starting to get mentioned even into the teens, which seems appropriate because I think he’s the “best of the rest”. If there is an NBA potential it might be [U]Rasheed Wallace[/U] without the 3pt shot, which is still really nice.
For his size Jordan is very quick. He’s got great size and strength, but retains lateral quickness that makes him quite a force in the low block at either end. His footwork and balance are polished, and while he tends to use a little wing to get by Whiteside here I think it’s a move he can get away with on most NBA nights. He doesn’t have huge hops, but they are pretty solid. His back to the basket dribble is a bit mechanical and likely prone to steals on drop down double teams, but he does pass well out of several double teams here.
He’s fluid enough that he can probably work both the 4 and 5 for an NBA team. He’s probably not going to be the scoring threat that Hibbert is, but he’s above average. In fact the strength of his game is that he’s somewhat above average in just about every frontline aspect without being a star in any one area. This is probably while he slipped under the radar for so long, along with being at Tulsa. I don’t know if I like him more than Udoh, but he’s a great consolation prize, especially if you traded down to 16 and Udoh didn’t fall to you.
Sticking with that Tulsa-Marshall game we have Hassan Whiteside going against a legit big. I think he comes up short in this game, and when you review his record you see a guy that got really fat against weaker teams. His claim to fame is using his strong length and hops to get help defense shot blocks. Occasionally he defends Jordan pretty well, but his footage is lacking in that area for a reason. A majority of this game features Jordan carving Whiteside out of the way in the low block at either end. When Whiteside goes into his post scoring moves they are clumsy and awkward tosses at the rim rather than polished moves. Plus his desire to chase blocks pulls him away from the rim far too often.
But much of this can be partially explained away as a product of his youth. Hassan is being drafted for being a lanky shot blocker with physical gifts just waiting to be molded into an NBA game. Plenty of dud picks come from the “lots of potential” category, but Whiteside would seem to show a bit more promise than the average pipe dream guy (Saer Sene anyone). You can see how he could become a Camby-like 4/5.
Tracking him at 10-15 seems way too high, but if he’s falling into the 20-25 range then you are getting a pretty decent deal. He’s a gamble, but if you aren’t betting too much on him then he makes a lot of sense. I think he’ll be better off if he goes to an established winning team rather than being placed at the center of attention on a developing squad.
One of the other lanky shot blockers was Solomon Alabi, and he’s featured here going against another bargain big in Trevor Booker. Right off the bat Alabi just oozes a Mutumbo style and look to his game. He’s got that stiff, elbows out, puppet-jointed movement to his game. He’s not weak, but his game isn’t quite a power game either. Perhaps the best way of viewing him is that he just doesn’t show any of the PF game that a lot of these other bigs do.
Alabi seems like a kid that is a few years away, but you could see how he could be a legit factor in the Mutumbo/Hibbert mold. With his size and reach he should be able to shoot a couple of basic shots over people while camping near the rim on defense as an intimidator. He has potential, it’s just in a totally different package than Whiteside, despite them both being shot block specialists at this point. I don’t really like the risk much before the 25th range, maybe closer to 30th really, but if the Pacers didn’t already have Hibbert then I could see giving him a shot.
Trevor Booker is also featured here and is one of the longer shots to make it for one primary reason – he’s just flat-out too short. It’s too bad because he’s got a great power post game, tons of strength that’s delivered quickly and with authority. His lateral movement is outstanding for a PF, but probably isn’t quite enough for an NBA SF. On defense I think he can switch to SFs, but I just don’t know how he impacts the offensive game from that spot.
Now he does have good hops for his size. Maybe if he also had a strong dribble game and/or a really nice outside shot then he’d be a natural transition to SF in the vein of Aminu. If you are picking him around 40th then he gets interesting. I saw him quite a bit and he’s a big time winner, a playmaker that tends to step up, but he makes little sense for the Pacers with Hansbrough already filling a similar role and playing style/size.
It’s stunning to think that from last year to this year the “Hans type” has gone from a top 15 pick to a 45th pick, but as I said at the start of this piece this is a deep draft for bigs. Hopefully I’ll be ready to add a follow up in the next couple of days with some footage of Pittman, D James, Vanardo and Nydiaye.
Let’s take a closer look at these potential deals…
Another Lawal video expected here
No related posts.
