With just 2 days before the beginning of the 2010, I wanted to compile some short thoughts on players that I watched just a small amount of tape on, and/or have run out of time to do a complete study of them in time to post prior to the draft. Most of these players have made an impression one way or the other, or I have read or heard things that I think merit mentioning on here. Again, these are just for guys who I feel will potentially be available at #10 for us, so there will be no blurbs on John Wall or Evan Turner for instance.
Last year this was the category Tyler Hansbrough fell in, which required me to go ahead and post my full analysis of him a day or so after draft night. Hopefully our Pacers will select one of the 11 players I have profiled so I won’t be required to watch any more film for a while.
The “Best of the Rest” of the 2010 draft:
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1. LARRY SANDERS is a big man prospect from VCU that I have liked for a very long time. He would have been the topic of a typical long detailed breakdown, but I had some difficulty getting VCU tape this year, and I have run out of time to break it all down once I finally got some.
At 6’10, with a wingspan of 7’5 3/4, Sanders has the capability of becoming a major defensive force in the interior in the NBA for a long time I feel. More important than his measurements, Sanders has a defensive mentality to his game, an aggression and attitude defensively that I really like. He has really good footwork defensively, is very aggressive in jumping out in the screen/roll, and hunts rebounds down outside his natural area. He is a natural shotblocker than gets them in a variety of ways, both on and off the ball.
I like him offensively more than most. He immediately will be a great “rim runner”, as he has a high motor and runs the floor very well, especially right down the gut….He looks like a guy who can develop a reliable right hand jump hook that will be unblockable, and he sets really nice wide screens, especially on the ball. He will be factor for lob plays off the screen/roll from a good passer/ballhandler right away.
He is way too skinny at just 222 lbs. I think this is where the smaller school of VCU played a role, as small colleges like that can’t afford the elite level strength coaches/facilities/dietary programs that BCS schools can. If Sanders can get in the 245-250lbs range, by year 2 or 3 in the league he can be a major defensive force and a starting caliber player on the right team, including ours.
Comparable for me is Theo Ratliff. He needs time and strength to develop into that, but I think he can be that level of player in the right situation. Sanders makes sense for the Celtics at #19, or Oklahoma City at #21, and I can see Houston liking him at #14.
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2. KEVIN SERAPHIN from France is another intriguing player. Obviously I have watched no film of him, although I tried to obtain some from a friend of mine in coaching with overseas contacts.
Seraphin is a player you could take in this draft and leave overseas for a year, which would be the ideal scenario I think for him. His buyout for this year is only $750,000, so a team could afford to bring him now if they wanted to though. Seraphin already has an NBA body, as he is built like a rock…cut. developed, and strong. Perfect body type for my theoretical “Player X”, his game is built on raw power and physicality at this point. Experience is an issue, as his just fundamental footwork in the low post. But for a team with foresight and long range planning, Seraphin projects to be an excellent value. I think he will be another good rebounding/shotblocking/defensive specialist guy to come from this draft.
Modern comparable: A bigger Paul Millsap or maybe an Antonio Davis.
Seraphin would seem to be a good pick for the Spurs at #20 maybe, or a team like Memphis, Minnesota, or Oklahoma City. with multiple picks. The ability to put him overseas for a year and therefore not have to pay him makes him more valuable than you’d think. I also think Miami is very good possibility for him at #18, if they can’t sell the pick to someone else.
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3. JAMES ANDERSON is a scorer from Oklahoma State. Without question I thought he was the best used and coached of any player I watched a little tape of. Anderson moved extremely well without the ball, reads screens well, and was set up for success by his coach in Stillwater, Travis Ford. Anderson is an aggressive points hunter, and can score in a variety of ways. He does struggle a little in getting open on his own without being screened for, and he isn’t a guy you are going to run alot of screen/roll situations or isolations for, he isn’t that type guy. Nor does he strike me as an overly enthusiastic defensive guy, though he has good enough athleticism to be average or maybe a hair better than that with experience.
At 6’6, he gives you zero positional flexibility, as he is a pure wing all the way. He also has almost no ability to drive to his right, as almost all of his dribble moves start off going to his left, usually with a crossover step….in scouting he is a “right foot/left hand” guy, who lacks counter moves off the dribble when his initial move is stopped. He drops his head like a big horse when he drives too, losing sight of the defense.
Still, he is going to be a really good catch and shoot guy, who to be a starter in the league is going to need to add some variety to his game offensively, and he will need to land in the right spot.
To me he projects to be a second unit scoring type guy, who maybe can develop into a bit more than that if he really works on his game.
Comparable: poor man’s John Salmons, or maybe a poor man’s Nick Anderson.
Looks to me like Anderson will be a good pick for the Bucks at #15,Chicago at #17, Boston at #19, or Atlanta at #24.
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4. LUKE BABBITT is a player I have some disagreement with most of the draft prognosticators. Some are projecting him to be a prolific NBA scorer, and I even read one person’s comparison of him Chris Mullin. I just don’t see that level of player in my limited look at him.
I do see a player who has mid range game, is savvy and smart, and has all sorts of moves with the basketball to get himself shots. I see a guy who knows how to play offensively from a fundamental standpoint once he has the ball.
But I didn’t think he was that good of a cutter without the ball, and I didn’t view him as a guy who will be able to use his smarts and experience to his advantage at this level. I see a guy who put up numbers against low to mid level competition due to being more intelligent and aggressive.
I also see a guy without a pure position in the NBA. He will get lit up like the 4th of July from a defensive standpoint no matter where you put him. Despite some supposedly good measurable athletic numbers, I see a guy who can’t slide his feet, can’t stay in front of average guys, and who got beat regularly all over the floor in college. A classic tweener to me, too slow and to play the 3, too small and weak to be a 4. He will be a green light in the NBA, a player each staff plans to attack every time he is in the game. How some teams are ranking him as highly as they are shocks me quite frankly, but to be fair they’ve watched him way more than I have. I would have a hard time sleeping at night if I drafted him pretty high expecting him to be a starter and to have to guard LeBron, Kobe, Pierce, Granger, Iggy, Ginoboli, Mayo, Wade, Carmelo, or basically any starting wing man in the league.
My comparison for his is easy: Austin Croshere.
Rumor is that he may go in the top 10 to the Clippers or Jazz, though I just don’t see him being that good.
5. DOMINIQUE JONES from South Florida is an interesting player I think could be underrated. He can score for sure, but I also think he is a pretty good passer and can make it as a combo guard in the right system. I like his strength and body build and confidence. If he had played on a decent team I think his assists would be higher as well, as any pass he made didn’t result in baskets like they often should have.
I can see him becoming a Tony Allen type player with that kind of impact in the league. He will be better with better teammates and coaching he will see in the NBA. He might be a good fit for Orlando near the end of the first round, or I can see him going to Sacramento at #33. Atlanta could take him as high as #24 possibly.
6. DANIEL ORTON is a guy I wouldn’t draft probably, but somebody I know will. I worry about his knee, his durability, and the fact that he played and contributed very very little at Kentucky. I also have some character concerns with him, just because he chose to come out when it made little common sense to do so. A center with bad knees and a heavy set body, who averaged 3 points and 3 rebounds in college?
I could be drastically wrong, but I see Orton slipping on Thursday night. I think Orton’s most likely spot is Washington at #30, though he could land anywhere from number #15 on I suppose.
He looks like a 2nd/3rd string center to me long term. James Magliore, David Harrison level player. Harrison is a great comparable I think.
7. GREIVIS VASQUEZ from Maryland is a gutsy, ballsy, fiery point guard with size at 6’5. Unfortunately, the Maryland system doesn’t teach you anything about playing the position at the next level, and Vasquez can’t guard and stay with the oak tree in my front yard defensively. He is good on the open court with the ball, and I like his moxie and attitude, but I don’t think he handles the ball against smaller pressuring guards that well and he definitely is a liability in your team defense.
Vasquez looks like a second round type to me, maybe being a good fit in the no defense fast pace of the Knicks at 38. He looks like Carlos Arroyo to me, or at least that type of player and impact in the league. I can also see him being a good fit for the Lakers, if they don’t sell their 2nd round pick for cash.
8. DAMIEN JAMES from Texas has a great NBA physical profile. At 6’7 227lbs, he has a powerful build, and to me looks like a wing who can play inside on the block some for you in post isolation situations for a clever coach. Like every wing in this draft besides Evan Turner and Gordon Hayward, he struggles handling the ball and making decisions. James can make one or two dribble moves, but not to pass….he is definitely looking to score when he gets it. He will be a very good rebounder at the NBA level, and will probably put up numbers for someone.
But I didn’t like his demeanor on the floor on tape, and he struck me as selfish. Maybe I am wrong, but that is what I see. He should be a good defender but he really wasn’t, particularly away from the ball…..he was the kind of guy his teammates couldnt rely on to help them defensively, and I thought he pouted defensively when he didn’t make shots on offense.
Still, he will be a rich man Thursday night. He looks like a late first round guy to me, maybe to Minnesota in their run of picks, or possibly to New Jersey at #27.
He very much reminds me of Corey Maggette.
9. I didn’t profile Cole Aldrich for this series, mainly due to the fact that I view him as an extremely unlikely selection for our Pacers. Aldrich though projects as a top 12-15 center to me, very much a useful player for the right team. He is solid defensively, holds his ground in the post, and makes guys make shots over him. He is unselfish and willing to help his teammates out, and he is good in the one or two step slide to hedge in the screen/roll. I also project him as the best screener in the draft, and love how wide he gets when setting screens for people, and the physicality he displays when doing that. Obviously not a star, he is held back I think to some degree by his ugly jump shot, which looks like a World Cup soccer player making an overhead pass….it isn’t very good at all to watch. He will have to hit that wide open 15 foot shot to reach his potential.
I see him as a Joel Pryzbilla type, 20-24 minute kind of guy. I see him likely landing in Toronto at #13.
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I didn’t watch any tape of other guys mentioned on this board yet, such as Craig Brackins, Jarvis Varnardo, Quincy Poindexter, or Mikhail Torrence. Torrence intrigues me with his size, as I personally tend to like bigger guards…..but I have yet to break him down and won’t unless we pick him.
I have tape of Armon Johnson from Nevada, but when I watched them I was taking notes on Babbitt primarily, and wasn’t really focusing on Johnson. I was gone at a basketball camp last weekend and didn’t get to go back and look at him in detail, but I will if we select him. My initial impression of him was that I found him a poor decision maker and somewhat selfish with poor vision, but I know Seth likes him alot, so Ill break him down in detail if he ends up in Indianapolis.
Before draft night I hope to have a first round mock draft up, and I will “call my shot” in trying to guess what the Pacers will actually do on Thursday night.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
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