The 11th draft profile of 2010 is for local hoops hero Gordon Hayward, the Hoosier state legend who came within one bank shot miss of becoming a real life Jimmy Chitwood for the Butler Bulldogs. The 10 previous profiles are all available for reading and sharing your opinions elsewhere on this site.
Hayward came from far off the draft radar, but when Butler made their run through the NCAA tournament, the spotlight was firmly placed on the local kid from the west side of Marion County. A former Indiana High school all star, Hayward first made his name known in Hoosier lore by making the game winning shot off an improbable in bounds play to win the 4A state championship for Brownsburg High School.
Let’s examine his game in detail, and try and find the pros and cons of his overall skillset.
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Hayward does not have overwhelming measurables by any means.
At 6’8, 211lbs, Hayward is in dire need of a serious weight program to get him stronger and more durable for the next level. He also doesn’t possess a very long wingspan, when you compare him to other forwards in this draft and already in the league. Born March 23 1990, Hayward was a late bloomer who grew later in life, and who definitely still has some filling out to do.
Hayward will definitely need a strength coach, and someone to put him on a strict diet plan to get him ready to play to survive the long marathon that is an NBA season. By all accounts a great kid, Hayward probably would have been better served to stay in school and develop his body, but when this much money is on the table, you almost have to go after it.
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Make no mistake, Hayward does have some interesting skills to take to the league, and he isn’t just a stereotypical slow shooter from Indiana.
In fact, Hayward actually isn’t all that great of a shooter to begin with. From 3 point distance, he actually made less than 30% of his attempts last year, which has to be a concern you would think for NBA teams studying him.
Hayward looks like someone who hasn’t adjusted his shot quite yet to how his body is growing, and who is having to adjust slightly to the level of defense he is seeing regularly. While his form isn’t bad by any means, he does hold and release the ball a little oddly for his current size.
Hayward shoots a little “2 handed” sometimes, and I also think his left hand placement is a little off place. Maybe because he has smaller hands and needs to hold and release the ball a little differently to keep his form, Hayward has a little flaw in his release that I don’t like. He holds the ball oddly with his guide hand, too much behind the ball, and sometimes when his mechanics are off he pushes the ball instead of having a pure stroke. It definitely isn’t text book form you’d expect to see from a kid who was supposed to be a sharp shooter.
For a youth coach, or for a coach of kids who are weak and need strength, this is a common thing to see. Kids who lack power in their legs and/or arms hold the ball lower, dip it low before they elevate up, and some hold on to the ball too long with their guide hand. I have a player right now who does the same thing at the high school level.
This isn’t a fatal flaw per se, as you can groove that type of release and become a really good shooter. But as defenses get better and better, and as the athletic talent you need to beat gets quicker and harder to score on, you have to rush things to get your shot off, and when you do that your accuracy can waver.
Now, at Butler he HAD to take and make shots, guarded or unguarded. I don’t believe Hayward is a good enough NBA prospect to be a guy who can make guarded shots as a professional. But I do think he probably can improve enough to be a guy who can consistently hit a wide open shot, and if he gets on the right team that is all he will have to do.
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Hayward is a good cutter without the ball, but only when he is really forced to do so as part of a set play called by the Butler bench. In the course of normal play action, Hayward has a tendency to stand and not move as much as you’d like. Now, as part of the Butler “ball screen motion” offense, part of that was by design….but still you’d like to see Hayward float to open areas more often, or at least fake people and replace himself rather than just stand as much as he did on tape. You can tell the Butler coaches really tried to design movement for him in their specials, because naturally Hayward just isn’t a guy who moves well without the ball without a specific set play called for him to do so.
Hayward is better with the ball than without it.
In the Butler scheme, almost all of it is based on playing screen/roll basketball and reacting off that. Hayward fit them well as a good decision maker with the ball, able to handle the ball well against bigger people and make plays either with the pass or with a pull up jumper.
Hayward has a mid range game. He stops well, and can turn his body in mid shot to get himself square. He can’t make a guarded shot off a catch and shoot, but he can make some of them when off the dribble. He has the step back jumper, and he can cross over one time into a jump shot pretty well. For his height, he is an excellent ball handler, no doubt because he has been a guard almost all of his life before he shot up so tall.
What he can’t do is get by a defender. He doesn’t want to muscle by anyone, and he lacks the blow by speed to get a shoulder in front. So, almost all of his moves off the dribble that end in shot attempts end with him having to shoot over someone, not at the rim.
At the NBA level, he’ll never be asked to go one on one I wouldn’t think. He can’t get past his man in college, so in the NBA it will be even harder. He can handle the ball well enough going in one direction or the other, but he doesn’t change directions at an NBA level level yet. His crossover isn’t low enough, his behind the back or between the legs moves are too stiff for this caliber of defense.
Hayward is in desperate need of a post game with his back to the basket, but he doesn’t have one. He isn’t comfortable with his back to the basket at all, and he lacks the leg strength to get position and keep it. He really just needs to develop one move, which would be a fadeaway jumper. Just one key move would be good enough to prevent teams from guarding him with smaller players, and maybe be good enough someday to force teams to double him. Right now, he lacks the leg lift to make a back the basket turn around jumper, and teams will put smalls on him just to dare him to try and play with his back to the rim.
What he is offensively as a scorer is a high motor guy, who will always play smart and do the right thing, take good shots and run your offensive plays to perfection. Hayward won’t score alot of points in any one single way, he will get them quietly in a variety of ways….2 points here, free throws there, maybe a fast break basket over there….and before you know it he can have a quiet 10-12 point night going.
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I think he can give you a little point forward in the right system. Hayward pass the ball well, and is careful and trustworthy with it. For a team with a scoring point guard that you want to play off the ball some, you can run plays with him handling the ball for you. And he will make the next pass for you….Hayward might lead this draft class in “hockey assists”.
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Hayward is a solid rebounder. He attacks the ball and rebounds outside of his area. He has really good hands, times his leaps well, and I think he reads the ball in the air extremely well. He tries hard, is relentless, and doesn’t get tired and take plays off. He blocks out consistently, and though he can get shoved under the rim sometimes he shows enough fight and high elbows that he physically can hold his own.
I really liked Butler when Hayward would get a defensive rebound, then bring the ball up himself for a quick screen/roll in transition. That is something that can translate to the NBA if a team chooses to have him do that for them.
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As a defender, Hayward is better than I expected, but not great by any means.
You can tell that Butler is extremely well coached on film from a man to man defense perspective. All their players jump to the ball well, get on the help line, stay in a stance for an entire possession, and contest shots with high hands. Fundamentally, Butler was the best team in the country defensively last year by a wide margin.
Hayward was a part of that. He plays with great effort and intelligence, and is fundamentally sound. Like in a previous profile, I think Hayward can “steer” people into help at the NBA level, and as an on the ball defender he’ll be ok because of that most of the time.
Hayward contests shots decently, but often times with the incorrect hand, too low, and too late. You can see him get a hand up often times as the shooter is releasing the ball, too late to effect anything. And he gets out of his stance too much against a speed dribble. Isolate Hayward with no available help and he can have some trouble….but as long as he doesnt need to slide more than once or twice he is ok.
Butler had some outstanding defensive players in the backcourt this past year, and that somewhat mitigated Hayward. Rarely did he have to help and recover in a close out situation, as Butler’s guards rarely got beat off the dribble. Plus, Hayward usually guarded the opponents weakest guy to protect him from foul issues. And often Butler played Hayward at a “4″, which made him guard slower guys.
Hayward is a tweener defensively for the NBA. He will be too slow to guard starting level 3 men, and too weak to guard most 4 men.
A team will have to really love his offensive game in order to overlook his defensive deficiencies. Despite working hard and being very intelligent, athletically he will have some issues that will be hard to overcome to be a high profile key member of a team.
Heyward looks like a 4th wing type, 9th-11th guy on a roster type to me.
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How does he fit the Pacers?
I don’t think he does. IF you had super athletic guys at spots all around him, superior individual defenders at key spots to play with him, then his skill set would fit in better.
While it would be a nice story of local boy made good, I don’t see any real justification for the Pacers selecting him. No one buys a ticket to watch a local kid sit on the bench.
Hayward can play on some teams and do well, and I do think he is a guy who will hit his ceiling and can be a glue guy who can lay a role for someone who plays alot of players and is creative.
Hayward would be a good fit in Philadelphia for Doug Collins, if the 76′ers had an additional late first rounder. They could use his skill set.
San Antonio could be a fit, as a defensive minded team who values character, they could use Hayward to space the floor and hide him a little defensively at times with their other guys. The Spurs pick #20 currently. Other teams as high up as Golden State at #6 are rumored to like Hayward, with the Clippers (#8), Jazz (#9), and Pacers at #10 all being prominently mentioned. And rumors are flying with those teams and Hayward as he is supposedly refusing to workout for the Grizzlies, who pick #12. But, my personally opinion is that Hayward falls on draft night, as teams are blowing smoke when they talk about him being that high.
But Hayward fits the best with a team who would be ideal for him in who he could play with, and who coaches there and how they play scheme wise. Hayward fits perfectly with Boston at #19, and that is where I think he lands in an ideal world.
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Player comparisons for me on this one were easy:
Modern comparable: Luke Walton
Past comparable: Fred Roberts
I’d love for Hayward to end up being a superstar, and I hope he proves me wrong….but that is how I see it.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
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